Fantasy baseball advice for Thursday: Brighter outlook for Sonny Gray (2024)

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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

Gray seeks brighter August

St. Louis Cardinals RHP Sonny Gray did not post the highest ERA among all starting pitchers in July, though he was close. Only Patrick Corbin, Chris Bassitt and Carlos Carrasco posted higher ERAs than Gray's 6.75 mark. Gray made four starts and permitted five earned runs in three of them, including a pair of rough outings against the Washington Nationals. He entered the fourth month of the season with a cool 2.98 ERA but ended it at 3.79 and hoping for better results in August. It begins Thursday night at Wrigley Field versus the Chicago Cubs.

In fact, Gray's lone quality start in July came against these Cubs when he tossed seven innings of three-run ball the weekend prior to the All-Star break. Gray topped 100 pitches for the first time this season, and he permitted a season-high nine hits. The game was a bit indicative of Gray's unlucky month, as he allowed more hits than innings in all four games, despite doing so only three times in his first 15 starts. Gray amassed 29 strikeouts versus four walks in July, certainly positive news. His July FIP was 3.95, far better than his 6.75 ERA. His xFIP was 2.37, third-best in baseball. Put simply, Gray was unlucky.

As a result, fantasy managers should not be at all concerned about Gray, who suffered through a league-worst .415 BABIP in July. This was the worst BABIP for any qualified starting pitcher in any month this season, besting the .412 figure by Oakland Athletics LHP Alex Wood in April. No qualified pitcher had a BABIP on the high side of .400 in any other month this season. One might say July was a rather gray month for Gray. Things should be a bit sunnier -- sorry -- starting Thursday.

What you may have missed on Wednesday

By Todd Zola

• Baltimore Orioles 3B Jordan Westburg has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand after being hit by a pitch in the bottom of the fifth inning of last night's game. There is no timetable for him to return, though the club hopes to have him back by the end of the regular season. The likely in-house replacement is Ramon Urias, with top prospect Coby Mayo looming at Triple-A Norfolk.

• St. Louis Cardinals SP Lance Lynn was placed on the 15-day IL due to knee inflammation. The righty has reportedly been pitching through the injury for a few starts. With SP Erick Fedde having been acquired at the deadline, the club opted to let Lynn take some time off and keep SP Andre Pallante in the rotation. Pallante has posted a 3.61 ERA over 10 starts, albeit with a tepid 43 strikeouts in his 52 1/3 innings.

• Los Angeles Angels 2B Luis Rengifo had to exit last night's game in the sixth inning thanks to wrist soreness. This has been a lingering issue after Rengifo hurt his wrist in early July and then spent 18 days on the IL. He will be evaluated today with his availability for tonight's home date with the Colorado Rockies in jeopardy. Rengifo posted an .800 OPS before the initial injury but has managed only a .506 mark in the eight games since his return.

• Boston Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen hurt his lower back, pitching in the ninth inning of a 2-2 tie with the Seattle Mariners. Jansen was observed cringing between pitches, instigating a visit from manager Alex Cora and the trainer. After throwing a practice pitch, Jansen stayed in to complete the scoreless frame. The Red Sox went on to walk things off in the 10th inning. The club is off today, traveling to Arlington to begin a weekend set with the Texas Rangers. If Jansen is unavailable, newly acquired Luis Garcia could close.

• Arizona Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald began July by yielding seven runs over his first three appearances, but he recovered with five straight scoreless appearances. Then things went sour again. Sewald has surrendered five runs over his last four outings, including a pair last night in just 1/3 of an inning. And, it could have been worse considering he walked three while giving up a hit. Sewald was credited with a hold after Ryan Thompson came in to secure the Diamondbacks' 5-4 win against the Washington Nationals. After the game, manager Torey Lovullo indicated that Sewald was experiencing some mechanical issues. Lovullo suggested he will re-evaluate his bullpen, with the possibility of using Thompson, A.J. Puk or Kevin Ginkel for saves while Sewald works on his delivery.

Everything else you need to know for Thursday

• July was also the worst month for Kansas City Royals RHP Seth Lugo, and he permitted a season-high six earned runs in his most recent outing, a home game with the aforementioned Cubs. Lugo lost three of four July starts, compiling a 4.78 ERA, and his problem was not bad luck (.256 BABIP). However, we can give Lugo, seventh among all pitchers in ESPN standard fantasy points this season, a small break. He figures to bounce back at Detroit. He faced the underwhelming Detroit Tigers in April and tossed seven shutout innings.

• July was not the worst month for Braves RHP Charlie Morton, though he finished on a sour note by allowing seven runs (five earned) against the rejuvenated Mets. Morton faces a new Miami Marlins team, one which turned over a significant portion of its roster through trades in recent days. This seems obvious, right? Go with Morton, as he remains competent, posting a 4.16 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with nearly a strikeout per inning, though far from consistent. He faced the Marlins in mid-April and... gave up six runs. OK, so maybe this isn't so obvious.

• We rarely discuss Colorado Rockies pitchers, but RHP Ryan Feltner quietly posted a 2.51 ERA in July with three quality starts in five chances. Of course, he did not win any of those games -- these are the Rockies, after all -- and he is 1-10 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season. But it is a Thursday and there are only five games, so bear with us as we seek streamers. Feltner faces an ordinary Los Angeles Angels offense far away from the Denver altitude and has a 4.16 road ERA this season. The Angels aren't so formidable on offense these days without Shohei Ohtani (very happy having gone over to Dodger blue) and Mike Trout (very unhappy having had to shut down his rehab efforts).

• Betting tip of the day: Marlins RHP Max Meyer is back in the bigs and he's already beaten the Braves this season, but this is a betting trap. Matt Olson and Austin Riley are hitting. Old newcomer Jorge Soler will hit. Take under 4.5 strikeouts (-115) for Meyer, who reached five innings in only two out of 15 Triple-A starts and, since Charlie Morton may not last any longer in this one, take over 8.5 runs (-115).

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Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Hitting report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• Ryan O'Hearn (BAL, 1B -- 41%) at Ben Lively

• Taylor Ward (LAA, LF -- 46%) vs. Ryan Feltner

• Jake Burger (MIA, 3B -- 19%) at Charlie Morton

• Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 21%) at Lively

• Nolan Schanuel (LAA, 1B -- 4%) vs. Feltner

• Matt Vierling (DET, RF -- 11%) vs. Seth Lugo

• Hunter Renfroe (KC, RF -- 4%) at Keider Montero

• Tyler Freeman (CLE, 3B -- 7%) vs. Trevor Rogers D

• avid Fry (CLE, C -- 42%) vs. Rogers

• Michael Massey (KC, 2B -- 2%) at Montero

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

• Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 52%) vs. Sonny Gray

• Brenton Doyle (COL, CF -- 52%) at Carson Fulmer

• Nico ho*rner (CHC, 2B -- 84%) vs. Gray

• Maikel Garcia (KC, 3B -- 64%) at Montero

• Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 77%) vs. Gray

• Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 53%) at Fulmer

• Isaac Paredes (CHC, 3B -- 88%) vs. Gray

• Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B -- 63%) vs. Rogers

• Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 77%) vs. Gray

• Alec Burleson (STL, LF -- 69%) at Shota Imanaga

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday

• Baltimore Orioles at Lively

• Cleveland Guardians vs.Rogers

• Atlanta Braves vs. Max Meyer